In this study, a methodology was developed to evaluate different retrofit strategies, which allows an estimation of the current and future thermal space heating demand of the approximately 1.8 million residential buildings in Switzerland. The approach is based on a building stock dynamics model that considers new buildings, replacement buildings, demolitions, as well as past and current rates of energy-related retrofits. Different potential retrofit strategies are applied to evaluate their impact on reducing space heating demand. The results show the effectiveness of the distinct retrofit strategies in reaching the target reduction and emphasize the differences in the resulting annual retrofit rates. The simulated specific retrofit rates can serve as a basis for developing building retrofit measures at the national level, as well as for informing the next generation of regulations.