In this study, the well-established service life design code defined in fib Bulletin 34 is adapted to predict the time to initiation of reinforcement corrosion in alkali-activated concretes submerged in marine conditions. The model approach is based on the probabilistic calculation of the time needed for a critical concentration of chloride ions, migrating from the external environment towards the rebar, to accumulate at the surface of the steel reinforcement and initiate the corrosion reaction. The information required to define the parameters of the model is derived from literature data, relating the concrete mix designs with accelerated laboratory test results. The findings indicate that alkali-activated concretes with high calcium content can exhibit promising characteristics as a construction material applied for structural application in chloride-rich corrosive environments. The probabilistic approach adopted in this model provides the opportunity to assess the influence of variability in mineralogical composition and reactivity of the precursors with the alkaline activating solution, that influence the chemical evolution and microstructure of the binder matrix. The predicted service life is quite sensitive to these factors, with very high service lives predicted for some alkali-activated concretes but rather short service lives predicted for others, and this must be incorporated into any engineering assessment of future material performance.