A preliminary population model was developed for the boreal felt lichen Erioderma pedicellatum (Hue) P. M. Jørg. in Newfoundland using life stage data collected in eastern and south-central Newfoundland, Canada. This Critically Endangered epiphytic lichen displayed a life history strategy with high adult survival and low recruitment. Deterministic models in 6 mo to 1 yr intervals were generated, yielding similar results to the overall mean values for the 4 yr of study in eastern Newfoundland. The populations of E. pedicellatum in Newfoundland are predicted by our models to be unsustainable because of adult mortality, and we attribute this problem to a decline in the forests of balsam fir Abies balsamea (Mill) that predominantly support this lichen. In eastern Newfoundland, thalli are located almost entirely on mature to over-mature balsam fir, and there is little regeneration because of heavy browsing by the introduced moose Alces alces population. The current and projected predictors indicate that habitat effects may be important in predicting future population size. An assessment of the stable stage distribution indicated that the current population has more juveniles and fewer apothecia-bearing thalli than projected, meaning the current population likely generated from a different set of survival and recruitment rates. The projected annual population growth rates calculated for 4 yr indicated that populations are declining (λ < 1.0, mean decline ± SD = –0.175 ± 0.079). The elasticity values support the fact that the population growth rates are most sensitive to changes in the survival of necrotic (apothecia-bearing) cohorts. We suggest that conservation is best focused on the inventory and protection of old-growth forests important to this species, the reduction of the introduced moose population and the use of herbivore exclosures in specific core population areas.